Price-to-Earnings Ratio - P/E Ratio
Categories: Company Valuation
You just inherited 1,000 shares of whatever.com, which trades publicly for $20 a share, and you also inherited 1,000 shares of Pepsi, which trade publicly for $40 a share. Your sister got the pewter bunny rabbit collection, but uh...you can live with it.
So...what on earth do you do now? What do you do with these things? You have no idea, because you’re an orthodontist, and you have your hands in wet mouths all day. If you’d inherited a truckload of floss, you’d totally know what to do with it.
You check out the brokerage report from Morgan Stanley on whatever.com. It has a hundred million dollars in revenue and no earnings. Earnings = revenues from whatever’s app sales at a buck each (100 million of them) minus its cost of goods sold. It had to pay 50 million bucks to Apple and others to get its apps out there. Then it had a small army of engineers and product people on payroll to build the app. Subtract another 30 million bucks. Then it had rent and legal expenses and healthcare insurance and office things, like computers and servers. All of that added up to be $20 million. So it had $100 million in revenues, and $100 million in expenses, and no earnings. But it has 50 million shares outstanding, which, when multiplied by the 20 bucks a share the market is paying for it, gives it a market value of a billion bucks. Oh and it has $50 million in cash on the books, and no debt. So the market is valuing the equity of the company at $950 million.
So you wonder, orthodontist and would-be floss-seller that you are, “How can something with no earnings or real profits be worth a billion dollars?” You read through the report, which notes that revenues are growing fast (about 100% a year), and that “the market,” whatever that is, believes that the company will have $200 million in revenues next year and $400 million the following year, and on $400 million, it’ll have $100 million in earnings. It will also produce $50 million in cash along the way, so in 2 years it’ll have $100 million in cash on the books and no debt.
So you ponder. That means that today, at a billion dollars, I’m paying 9 times the earnings expected 2 years from now for the equity value of this company. Is 9 times earnings cheap? Expensive? How do I frame the notion?
Well, the “average” S&P 500 company trades at about 16 times earnings. But the average company is totally different from whatever.com. The average company is like...Caterpillar tractors. It’s mature, unlike whatever.com (and the people who write for Shmoop). It's been around for a century. It has a stable set of buyers. What are the odds people still need tractors to harvest food in 5 years? Pretty good. Whereas whatever.com might have evaporated by then.
What about revenue growth? Yeah, Caterpillar is mature; it grows revenues at only about 8% a year in a good year. And it has a lot of capital expense as well. Every decade or so, it needs a new plant to smelt engines and redo its manufacturing process to keep up with the Joneses. Or rather, the Wus. Oh, and it pays a small dividend. Tough company to compare with whatever.com, but it trades at about 16 times this year’s earnings and will grow earnings slowly. You note that it trades at 15 times next year’s projected earnings and 14 times the following years earnings. So that’s interesting. Caterpillar trades at a higher multiple than whatever.com.
Does that make sense? It’s nowhere near as sexy a company. But it must be the risk; the market is discounting a lot of risk, because the odds that whatever.com doesn't make its $400 million in app sales in 2 years is probably pretty good. So you get it. You’ll keep your shares of whatever.com if you believe they’ll really hit their $100 million in earnings 2 years from now...and you’ll dump ‘em if you don’t.
But what about Pepsi? That’s a company that, financially, sounds a lot more like Caterpiller than whatever.com. The risk of people still drinking highly addictive, caffeinated fizzy water and salted potatoes in 5 years? Yeah, really good odds. Pepsi grows a bit faster than Caterpillar, has a bit higher margins, and acquires competitors all the time, dipping its toes even outside the food and snacks arena, so it has a really big playing field. And there’s that global warming thing. People drink more when it’s hot, right? So Pepsi will earn about 2 bucks a share this year, and it trades at 20 times earnings, or $40. Because Pepsi has long-term distribution contracts with grocery stores and vending machines and other weird places in which it sells its wares, it has pretty highly predictable earnings streams, so when PEP tells the Street that it’ll earn $2.20 next year and $2.40 the following year, the likelihood is very high that it hits those numbers or better.
And on its $2.40 in earnings, at $40, PEP trades at a bit of a premium to the stock market overall. That $2.40 in earnings on a $40 per share price today means that PEP trades at 16.6x 2 years out earnings. The overall stock market trades at 16 times this year’s earnings, and because earnings are growing, it trades at about 15 times earnings 2 years out.
Why all of the comparisons? Because price-to-earnings ratios are just a measure of the value of a company relative to everything else. The PE Ratio is just one metric investors use to measure the value of a company, and the basic foundation of the idea is simple: if you invest a dollar in a company, you want to be paid back either by getting cash distributions coming to you that, over time, are much greater than a dollar, or you want the asset itself to simply appreciate at a healthy, fast pace.
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Finance: What is the Price-To-Earnings R...217 Views
Finance a lash up What is the price to earnings
ratio All right You just inherited a thousand shares of
whatever dot com which trades publicly for twenty bucks a
share And you also inherited a thousand shares of pepsi
And that stock trades publicly for forty bucks a share
Your sister got the pewter bunny rabbit collection but well
you can live with that fact that you take the
thousand shares All right so what on earth do you
do now What do you do with these things Well
you have no idea Because you're an orthodontist and you
have your hands in wet mouths all day Well if
you'd inherited a truckload of floss well then we totally
know what to do with it All right Will you
check out the brokerage reports from morgan stanley on whatever
dot com it has one hundred million dollars in revenue
and no earnings no profits Well what Our earnings again
Oh yeah This revenues from whatever's app sales at a
buck Each one hundred million of them minus its cost
of goods sold Well it had to pay fifty million
bucks to apple and others to get it saps out
There well then it had a small army of engineers
and product people on payroll to build The app will
subtract another thirty million box then it had rent in
legal expenses and health care insurance and office things like
computers and app servers All of that added up to
be twenty million dollars and because of the accounting laws
you have to subtract it all last year Even though
the app it lasts a long time i had to
take it all off the top It had a hundred
million dollars in revenues and a hundred million dollars in
expenses and no earnings but it has fifty million shares
outstanding which when multiplied by twenty bucks a share that's
What the market's paying for it twenty dollars share It
gives it a market value of a billion bucks Take
the shares outstanding kinds of market price to get what
the company's worth at least according to wall street buying
and selling the shares Oh it has fifty million dollars
in cash on the books and no debt so the
market is valuing the equity of the company at nine
hundred fifty million dollars meaning it's valuing the earnings power
Of the company in the future in his hands at
nine Fifty alright so you wonder forth an honest and
would be flossed cellar that you are How khun something
with no profits no earnings be worth a billion dollars
Well you read through the report which notes that the
revenues are growing really fast like one hundred percent a
year and that the market whoever that is believes that
the company will have two hundred million in revenues next
year and for hundred million the following year and on
four hundred million of revenues it will have one hundred
million dollars in net earnings It'll also produce fifty million
in cash along the way so in two years it
will have one hundred million dollars in cash on the
books and no debt If you go back and think
about that that you could subtract one hundred million from
the billion and it's the nine hundred million of equity
value back we'll get All right So you ponder that
means that today at a billion dollars i'm paying if
i buy it at twenty bucks a share i'm paying
nine times the earnings expected in two years Two years
From now for the equity value of this company huh
Well is nine times earnings cheap expensive Attaway frame the
notion Well the average snp company trades it about sixteen
times two years out earning something like that But the
average company is totally different from whatever dot com The
average company is like a caterpillar Tractors or well pepsi's
kind of average Wells fargo kind of average Well it's
a mature company unlike whatever dot com and the people
who write for shmoop but not mature way No Well
caterpillar has been around for a century has a stable
set of fires And you know what are the odds
People still need tractors to mine food in five years
You have pretty good odds whereas whatever dot com might
have totally evaporated by them Yeah well what about revenue
growth Yep Caterpillars matured gross revenues that only about eight
percent a year in a good year And it has
a lot of capital expenses Well every decade or so
it needs a new smelting plant to smelt engines and
redo its manufacturing process Tio you know keep up with
the joneses or rather the blues or chains Oh and
it pays a small dividend yeah helps well tough company
to compare with whatever dot com but caterpillar trades at
about sixteen times thiss years earnings and it'll grow earning
slowly and you note that it trades at fifteen times
and extras projected earnings and fourteen times the following year's
earnings So that's interesting caterpillar trades at a hire multiple
on two year forward earnings than whatever dot com who
does that make sense It's nowhere near ist sexy a
company but it must be the risk the market is
discounting a lot of risk because the odds that whatever
dot com doesn't make its four hundred million dollars in
projected app sales in two years well that's pretty good
could earn a lot less so you know you get
it You'll keep your shares of whatever dot com if
you believe they'll really hit the one hundred million in
earnings on four hundred million of revenues two years from
now and you'll dump the shares if you don't Well
what about pepsi Well that's company that financially sounds a
lot more like caterpillar than whatever dot com the risk
of people still drinking highly addictive caffeinated fizzy water and
salted potatoes in five years left pepsi sells a lot
of data chips Yeah really good odds Pepsi grows a
bit faster than caterpillar it has a bit higher margins
and it acquires competitors all the time dipping its toes
even outside the food and snacks arena So it has
a really big playing field that it plays on by
a lot of things and there's that global warming thing
People drink more when it's hot right So pepsi learn
about two bucks a share this year and it trades
that twenty times earnings or forty dollars Well because pepsi
has long term distribution contract with grocery stores and vending
machines and theme parks and other weird places it sells
its wears well pepsi has a pretty highly predictable earning
stream So when peopie tells the street that it'll learned
to twenty next year in two forty the following year
what likelihood Very high that it hits those numbers are
maybe does little better because it has a history of
under promising and over delivering and on its two bucks
forty and earnings at forty dollars pep trades at a
bit of a premium to the stock market overall that
to forty and earnings on a forty dollars a share
price today means that peopie trades at sixteen point six
times two years out Earnings well the overall stock market
trades at sixteen times this year's earnings because well earnings
are growing It trades it about fifteen times earnings two
years out Why all of these crazy comparisons That air
probably confusing you well because price to earnings ratios are
just one measure of the value of a company relative
to everything else The p e ratio is just one
metric investors used to measure the value of a company
and the basic foundation of the idea is simple If
you invest a dollar in a company today you want
to be paid back either by getting cash distributions coming
to you That overtime are much greater than that dollar
you put in like big dividends and so on Or
you want the asset itself to simply appreciate it A
healthy fast pace about eight dollars worth of stock Well
you want that stock to double every you know three
four five six years something like that Alright we'll announce
for your sister's rabbit collection Well that things should multiply
At a good rate too unless she decides to separate 00:07:47.975 --> [endTime] them