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Probabilistic Reasoning Videos 13 videos

TSI Math: Rolling Dice to Predict Probabilities
31 Views

Hakim rolled a standard 6-sided die 3000 times. Which of the following is the most reasonable prediction of how many times he rolled a five?

TSI Math: Predicting Probabilities with a Trick Coin
31 Views

Mercedes has a trick coin that's more likely to land on heads than on tails. She flipped the coin 1500 times, resulting in tails 450 times. What is...

TSI Math: Predicting a Sequence of Probabilities
55 Views

A standard deck of playing cards contains 4 different suits, each of which has 13 cards. Assuming the deck is shuffled, what is the probability of...

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TSI Math: Calculating Conditional Probability with Baye's Theorem 4 Views


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Description:

Toni ordered pizza for a party, and needs it to arrive by 7pm. There is a 30% chance the pizza will be delivered late. If the pizza is late, there is an 80% chance it will be cold. Regardless of whether the pizza shows up on time, there is also a 31% chance it will be cold. If the pizza was cold on arrival, what is the probability it was delivered late?


Transcript

00:03

Okay sy mash members we got some more probability stuff

00:07

for you Here we go Tony ordered pizza for a

00:09

party and needs it to arrive by seven pm there's

00:12

a thirty percent chance that pizza will be delivered late

00:15

If the pizza's late there's an eighty percent chance it

00:18

will be cold regardless of whether the pizza shows up

00:21

on time There's also a thirty one percent chance it

00:24

will be cold if the pizza was cold on arrival

00:27

Well what is the probability It was delivered late Okay

00:33

well when we need to travel back in time to

00:35

answer a probability question our choices are the tricked out

00:38

delorean time machine or based there Um well since we

00:41

let out the delorean will go with based their amir

00:44

based serum comes in two versions and each one is

00:46

useful in different situations Take a look at the information

00:49

given by the question and put it in symbolic form

00:52

to figure out which version of bays to use Well

00:55

we want to know the probability that that pizza dude

00:57

was late given that the pizza was cold If we

01:00

set event b to be late delivery and a to

01:03

be cold pizza we're looking to find probability of be

01:07

given a probability that the pizza's cold given that it

01:10

was delivered late His point eight That means well this

01:12

p a given b thing is point eight Right That's

01:15

probability The probability of a late delivery is point three

01:18

or ah this thing the probability that pizza arrives cold

01:21

is point three one or ah this equation right there

01:24

Well the three things we do know and the one

01:25

thing we want to know match the simpler form Of

01:28

based serum which is this thing and we just plug

01:31

it all in and see if it works So we've

01:33

got point eight times point three over point three one

01:35

that's point two four point three one what does that

01:37

give us About a seventy seven and a half percent

01:40

chance that the pizza dude was late If the pizza

01:43

arrived cold gross and all congealed congealed What happened Your

01:48

pineapple pizza We need more pineapple on it Come on 00:01:50.688 --> [endTime] guys

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