Odds of Going Pro

Odds of Going Pro

1
5%

Men's 5K: 16–17 minutes, Women's 5K: 19–20 minutes

You petition ESPN for your own hour-long special to announce which lucky college team you will be joining to launch your superstar career. We think you might have picked the wrong sport.

2
25%

Men's 5K: 15:30–16 minutes, Women's 5K: 18–19 minutes

You can't seem to crack the top ten in any of the championship races you run. Good thing you picked up that marketing degree in college so you have something to fall back on.

3
50%

Men's 5K: 14:30–15:30, Women's 5K: 17–18 minutes

You've got a great knack for the sport, but a torn ACL ends your career before it even gets going. Maybe you should try coaching.

4
75%

Men's 5K: 13:30–14:30, Women's 5K: 16:30–17 minutes 

Despite what you think, silver is a great color on you. You should consider writing a book about your experiences coming in second place all the time. It might even be Amazon's second-best seller. Ba-dum-tshh.

5
95%

Men's 5K: under 13:30, Women's 5K: under 16:30 

You've been offered some professional sponsorships, but of course, you wouldn't put your amateur status—and your NCAA eligibility—in jeopardy by accepting any of them. Still, you're so popular on the trails that even your Mom comes out to your meets to watch you…oh, and a handful if pro scouts. You're this close to becoming a real competitive runner. Time to start training on a track, though, if you want to make it to the Olympics.

Summary:

Ever hear the phrase, "one in a million"? Well, you'll need to be exactly that if you want to go pro. Think about the best high school athlete in your district of 10 high schools. The absolute Big Man in the area. He gets headhunted so hard by colleges that he can barely spare time for his school work, let alone friends. Then, he gets into college and is a total all star there...of the 12 best all stars on his team that year. Well, guess, what? Only one of those guys will be a pro in five years...if this is a top class of athletes out of the the past several years. 

So, even if you're in the 95th percentile of all NCAA athletes in your sport, you've still got a snowball's chance in a microwave of going pro. Not to mention actually mattering at all. More than likely, you'll still be struggling to eke out a living on the bench for a year or stuck on a farm team until you're forced to look for other work. We could bludgeon you with more data and stats, but as you dream about success, just make sure you're hedging your bets.

In other words: enjoy that "alternative" career, Shmooper. (#realtalk)