ShmoopTube

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Here's a shmoopy question for you...

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Bonnie has the hardest time picking out a

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color for her fingernails each week...

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...so she uses a fair spinner to make all

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her decisions for her.

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Her spinner has landed on either the red or

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blue regions on each of its last ten spins.

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Her fingers are starting to get so bored.

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What is the probability of the spinner landing on white on the next spin?

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And here are the potential answers:

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OK, seriously? Like... if it were a full moon

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AND the groundhog saw its shadow, would that change the outcome of the next spin of the

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wheel?

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First of all, we have to wonder what the groundhog was doing out so late anyway.

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Has it not heard of "curfew?"

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This is purely a question about dependence

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-- that is, any and every spin is independent of every other.

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It doesn't matter what the last 982 spins were, assuming that the spinner was indeed

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fair and not jimmied to mess with true random chance.

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So the answer is 1 in 4 -- just as in any other spin.

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Our answer is C.

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Unfortunately, Bonnie rolls red yet again.

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And even more unfortunately, she can't figure out where her red fingernail polish went...

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